Housing Affordability and Social Security of Low-Income Households: Empirical Evidence from Kenya's Affordable Housing Programme in Nairobi City County

Housing affordability has emerged as a central policy concern in rapidly urbanizing cities across Sub-Saharan Africa, where low-income households disproportionately bear the burden of escalating housing costs. This article examines the effect of housing affordability on the social security of low-income households enrolled in Kenya's Affordable Housing Programme (AHP) in Nairobi City County. This study is grounded on the Residual Income Theory of housing affordability. Drawing on a convergent parallel mixed-methods design, quantitative data was collected from 290 beneficiary households using structured questionnaires and analyzed through descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and hierarchical multiple regression. Qualitative data was obtained through semi-structured key informant interviews with 16 national and county government officials and representatives of Community-Based Organizations (CBOs) and analyzed thematically. Reliability analysis yielded a Cronbach's Alpha of 0.890 for the housing affordability scale, and diagnostic tests confirmed that all regression assumptions were satisfactorily met. The findings reveal that housing affordability had a positive and statistically significant effect on household social security, emerging as the strongest predictor in the regression model (β = .613, p < .001 in Model 1; β = .305, p < .001 in Model 2). Moderate but consistent improvements in cost burden, payment regularity, and financial predictability were associated with enhanced household stability, safety, and resilience to economic shocks. Qualitative evidence confirmed that while programme pricing structures are intentionally aligned with low-income profiles, affordability remains fragile for households experiencing income volatility. The study concludes that housing affordability is a foundational pathway to social protection and recommends income-sensitive payment structures, targeted subsidies, and closer integration of housing policy with social protection frameworks. The study further recommends that housing policy should be formally integrated with existing social protection frameworks, including the Social Health Authority and the National Social Security Fund, to create complementary safety nets that reinforce affordability outcomes and provide a backstop for households facing payment difficulties. Keywords: Housing Affordability; Social Security; Low-Income Households; Affordable Housing Programme