Export Diversification and Manufacturing Export Performance under AfCFTA: Evidence from Kenya

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents Kenya’s manufacturing sector with opportunities to expand intra-African trade and improve export performance through broader and more diversified product markets. However, evidence on whether export diversification contributes to improved manufacturing export performance remains limited. This study examined the relationship between export diversification and manufacturing export performance in Kenya within the context of AfCFTA. Guided by the Theory of Free Trade Areas, the study adopted a quantitative cross-sectional survey design. The target population comprised 3,500 registered manufacturing export-oriented firms, from which Yamane’s formula determined a minimum sample of 359 firms. Stratified random sampling was used to distribute 389 questionnaires across manufacturing export sub-sectors, yielding 356 complete responses and a 91.5% response rate. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Spearman’s rank-order correlation, and multiple linear regression in SPSS Version 26. The findings revealed a weak positive relationship between export diversification and manufacturing export performance (ρ = 0.153). However, regression analysis showed that export diversification was not a statistically significant predictor of manufacturing export performance (β = 0.051, p = 0.334). The objective was therefore not supported. The findings suggest that export diversification alone may be insufficient to enhance manufacturing export performance, highlighting the need for complementary trade facilitation, institutional support, productivity, competitiveness, and market-access interventions under AfCFTA. Keywords: African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA); Export Diversification; Manufacturing Export; Performance