Factors Contributing to The Conflict Escalation in the Mau Forest Complex, Narok County, Kenya

The Mau Forest Complex in Kenya has faced significant environmental degradation, political interference and socio-economic tensions leading to persistent resource-based conflicts. This study aimed to identify and analyze the key factors contributing to the escalation of conflicts in the region. The problem is rooted in the competition for increasingly scarce resources such as water, firewood and arable land, exacerbated by illegal human activities, political manipulation, and weak governance. The study is guided by the environmental security theory. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining a descriptive survey of 134 respondents with semi-structured interviews of 20 key informants, including residents, community leaders, and government officials. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The study found that resource scarcity (Mean = 4.51, SD = 0.85) and political interests (Mean = 4.50, SD = 0.91) were the most significant contributors to conflict. Thematic analysis of qualitative data underscored the role of political interference, deforestation, and the destruction of water catchments in exacerbating tensions. The study concludes that conflicts in the Mau Forest Complex are driven by resource scarcity, political interference, land-use changes, and environmental degradation. Depletion of vital resources, exacerbated by population growth and weak governance, intensifies competition and tensions. Political manipulation worsens the situation, leading to marginalization and conflict. Poor law enforcement enables illegal activities like land grabbing and logging, further undermining forest management. To address these issues, the study recommends strengthening governance, promoting sustainable resource management, and developing inclusive conflict resolution mechanisms. Community-based programs, reforestation, and collaborative decision-making are essential for long-term peace and sustainability in the region. Keywords: Conflict Escalation resource scarcity, political interference and environmental degradation